By Ehichioya Ezomon
The sustained omission of the name of Vice President Kashim Shettima from political messaging of the All Progressives Congress (APC), especially in his North-East homestead, has meshed with the adage, “Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action.” This popular saying, attributed to Ian Fleming’s James Bond novel ‘Goldfinger’, explains that, “a single occurrence might be accidental, a second might be a random chance, but a third event suggests a pattern or even an intentional act.”
Surely, there’s a “pattern, an intention or an enemy action” by power mongers to exclude Senator Shettima from pairing President Bola Tinubu on the APC ticket for the next General Election in November 2026 (as mooted at the National Assembly) or in February 2027.
In an unusual and controversial move in 2022, then-‘National Leader’ of the APC, Asiwaju Tinubu, named Shettima as his running mate on a Muslim-Muslim ticket for the February 25, 2023, election, which they won despite the muckraking, even from within the APC, against the pairing.
The ‘M-M’ ticket led to prominent Christians across Nigeria renouncing their membership of the APC, while many others who remained behind canvassed for, and voted opposition parties and their candidates at the poll.
Having survived the political hurricane, won the election and are in government, most APC members have taken for granted Shettima’s shoo-in as Tinubu’s running mate in 2027. But that assumption looks misplaced, as the political din reaches a crescendo!
The 2027 poll has dominated political discourse such that the opposition parties have formed a Coalition of Opposition Politicians (COP), and under the African Democratic Congress (ADC), are challenging the behemoth APC, which so far controls 29 of 36 states of Nigeria.
But the APC, which’s enjoyed a smooth ride, appears courting division in its fold with the idea of replacing Shettima on its ticket. Whether sponsored by Tinubu, his handlers or those eyeing Shettima’s position, the idea has shockingly gained traction in the vice president’s North-East base.
The purveyors of Shettima’s “no-show” for 2027 carry on their objectives in a humiliating manner of refusing to mention his name as Tinubu’s “running mate” at APC’s political events, and leaving out his photographs on banners displaying the party’s stalwarts and possible candidates for the 2027 poll.
On Sunday, June 15, 2025, at an APC North-East Consultative Meeting in Damaturu, Gombe State capital city, a fracas broke out mid-session when the National Vice Chairman (North-East), Mustapha Salihu, endorsed President Tinubu for a second term without mentioning Vice President Shettima as his running mate.
It’s a revelation of the scheming by the APC governors of Gombe and Yobe to replace Shettima if Tinubu sees through his alleged plan for another Muslim to run with him in 2027, while some North-East Christians reportedly want former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Mr Yakubu Dogara, for the position.
Salihu’s announcement prompted hauling of missiles at the APC leaders, including then-National Chairman and former Kano State Governor Abdullahi Ganduje, who tried unsuccessfully to douse the tension by assuring the aggrieved members that it’s a given that Shettima would run with Tinubu in 2027.
Then-three governors of APC in the North-East, Babagana Umara Zulum of Borno, Inuwa Yahaya of Gombe and Mai Mala Buni of Yobe had held series of meetings to prevent from becoming public the alleged plot to replace Shettima; and “to adopt a unified position, indicating that stakeholders from the six states of the North-East were unanimously backing both President Tinubu and Vice President Shettima for re-election in 2027.”
The governors were reportedly divided over Shettima’s endorsement, with Zulum “agreeing to the idea, while Yahaya and Buni remained neutral.” That disagreement resulted in what transpired at the meeting when Mr Salihu endorsed Tinubu, without Shettima, for re-election!
Not surprising to polity watchers, as the issue remains a hush-hush affair, a similar Damaturu scenario surfaced in Maiduguri, Borno capital city, on January 19, 2026, as the North-East hosted a Zonal Public Hearing on amendment of the APC constitution, where Shettima’s photograph was missing from the banner featuring pictures of President Tinubu, the four APC governors of Borno, Gombe, Taraba and Yobe and the party’s National Legal Adviser, Vanguard reported on January 20.
Borno State House of Assembly’s longest-serving Speaker in Nigeria’s history, Rt Hon. Abdulkarim Lawan, summed up the stakeholders and delegates’ vehement rejection of a “deliberate scheme to undermine Shettima as Vice President of Nigeria,” and ensure he isn’t paired to run with Tinubu in 2027.
“How can the organisers exclude the picture of a sitting vice-president, who is from Borno and the North-East zone? This was what created the fracas in Gombe, and it is repeating itself here in Borno. I do not know the motive of the organisers, but it is not right,” Lawan said, drawing applause from the audience – “reflecting the widespread disapproval, among party members at the event, of Shettima’s photo omission.”
Meanwhile, the North Central All Progressives Congress Forum has risen in support of Shettima as running mate to Tinubu in 2027, warning that dropping him from the party ticket would amount to a “grave political miscalculation.” Its chairman, Alhaji Saleh Zazzaga, issued a statement on Thursday, January 22, in Abuja, in reaction to “reports of some APC members pushing for Shettima’s replacement,” as PUNCH Online reports.
The Forum claimed that Tinubu won’t gain new votes by replacing Shettima on religious grounds, but would lose support and votes in Northern Nigeria if the opposition ADC fields, as its 2027 candidate, the 2023 flagbearer of the Labour Party (LP), Mr Peter Obi.
“If you check, you will notice that in 2023, most of their (Christian) communities voted for Peter Obi Now, if Obi comes out again in 2027 on the platform of the ADC, what is the guarantee they will vote for Tinubu even if he drops Shettima and replaces him with a Christian? That is not going to happen,” the Forum said.
“What is likely is that Tinubu will lose support among core (Muslim) northerners, thereby reducing his votes and giving the advantage to Peter Obi. Basic political calculation shows that dropping Shettima makes no sense and is actually very dangerous.”
Warning that abandoning the Muslim-Muslim ticket would strengthen the opposition in 2027, and advising President Tinubu to “retain Shettima in order to strengthen his chances in 2027,” the Forum noted that those calling for a change on the APC ticket didn’t support Tinubu in 2023 and won’t vote for him in 2027, “even if he bows to their demands” to replace Shettima.
The Forum declared: “There is serious danger in changing a winning ticket. We totally and unequivocally reject calls and plans to drop Vice President Kashim Shettima as President Bola Tinubu’s running mate in the next election.
“We sincerely advise President Bola Tinubu and the leaders of the party not to listen to such calls, because such a decision will turn out to be a grievous political miscalculation. Those behind the agitation are acting against the interests of the party and the president. They do not want to see President Tinubu re-elected. That is the only reason anybody with political knowledge would make such a request,” the Forum added.
Noting that the “Muslim-Muslim ticket gave us (APC) victory in 2023,” the Forum dismissed suggestions that foreign powers, including the United States and other Western countries, might pressure Nigeria to abandon the Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2027, insisting that Nigeria is a sovereign nation that shouldn’t bow to external influence, warning that “outside interference can undermine democracy and trigger avoidable conflict.”
Can President Tinubu gamble with replacing Vice President Shettima at a time when dissatisfied and disgruntled Northern politicians, including members of the APC, congregate to remove him from power, citing the prevailing hardships caused by the administration’s tough economic reforms, and insecurity in Northern Nigeria, all of which Shettima’s navigated with Tinubu?
This is the poser in my December 22, 2025, copy, titled, “2027 poll: Replacing Shettima one gambit Tinubu can’t wager,” stating emphatically that the aftermath of the president’s proclamation of “Subsidy is gone” in his inaugural speech on May 29, 2023, “will be a storm in a teacup compared to the political tsunami that’ll sweep Northern Nigeria” should he “carry out the lingering rumours of replacing Vice President Shettima on the 2027 ticket of the ruling APC.”
While acknowledging Tinubu’s acclaimed political “sagacity and wizardry” since 1992, when he’s elected Senator, to 2023 when he secured the Presidency, and now “in government and in power,” I make bold to repeat that “replacing Shettima is a gamble that Tinubu can ill-afford,” as the vice president remains the best and surest bet that can swing the needed votes for the APC in Northern Nigeria! President Tinubu shouldn’t change his winning combination to satisfy those, who don’t mean well for his re-election in 2027!
• _Mr Ezomon, Journalist and Media Consultant, writes from Lagos, Nigeria.
