According to the Presidency, this development is based on economic projections released by the International Monetary Fund in its World Economic Outlook.
The Presidency has wrongly claimed that under President Bola Tinubu, Nigeria is the fourth fastest-growing economy in the world, trailing only Saudi Arabia, China, and India.
According to the Presidency, this development is based on economic projections released by the International Monetary Fund in its World Economic Outlook.
Findings by SaharaReporters, however, contradict the claims made by the Tinubu Presidency.
As defined by the International Monetary Fund: “GDP is important because it gives information about the size of the economy and how an economy is performing. The growth rate of real GDP is often used as an indicator of the general health of the economy. In broad terms, an increase in real GDP is interpreted as a sign that the economy is doing well.”
By this definition, the actual measure of an economy’s performance is its real GDP.
According to the real gross domestic product (GDP) projections for countries published by the IMF in its April 2025 issue, Nigeria ranks 37th on the list of countries with economic growth projections—not 4th, as claimed by the Presidency.
Sunday Dare, the Special Adviser on Media and Public Communications to the President shared the claim.
He wrote: “Nigeria takes the lead in Africa with Economic Growth as President Tinubu’s Reform Policies abate the Headwinds that confronted Nigeria’s Economy two years ago.
“Nigeria’s economy is ranked among the 5 top growing economies in the world. Nigeria, with its 230 million population, Vast Resources and a President with Clear Vision can punch above its weight again.”
The social media aide to President Tinubu, Dada Olusegun, also shared an image claiming that Nigeria is the fourth-highest in terms of growth projection.
Findings show that the countries listed below have higher growth projections than Nigeria, based on real GDP figures in the IMF World Economic Outlook for April 2025.
According to the latest IMF data, Nigeria’s growth projection (real GDP) stands at 3%. This aligns with the data cited by the Nigerian government, validating that the Presidency is indeed referencing real GDP. However, Nigeria is not the fourth fastest-growing economy in the world. Based on the IMF data the Presidency claims to reference, Nigeria ranks 37th among countries by growth projections.
Countries with higher growth projections include: China 4.0%, India 6.2%, Indonesia 4.7%, Vietnam 5.2%, Malaysia 4.1%, Philippines 5.5%, Argentina 5.5%, Paraguay 3.8%, Malta 3.9%, Croatia 3.1%, Serbia 3.5%, Macao SAR 3.6%, UAE 4.0%, Kazakhstan 4.9%, Algeria 3.5%, and Azerbaijan 3.5%.
Other countries with higher projections include: Egypt 3.8%, Morocco 3.9%, Uzbekistan 5.9%, Georgia 6.0%, Armenia 4.5%, Tajikistan 6.7%, Mauritania 6.8%, West Bank and Gaza 4.4%, Kenya 4.8%, Ghana 4.0%, Côte d’Ivoire 6.3%, Cameroon 3.6%, Senegal 8.4%, Zambia 6.2%, Ethiopia 6.6%, Tanzania 6.0%, Democratic Republic of Congo 4.7%, Uganda 6.1%, Mali 4.9%, and Burkina Faso 4.3%.
In Africa alone, Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Mauritania, Kenya, Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Cameroon, Senegal, Zambia, Ethiopia, Tanzania, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda, Mali, and Burkina Faso have higher growth projections than Nigeria.
It is unclear why the Presidency chose to mislead Nigerians with data not officially confirmed by the International Monetary Fund
GISTCORE MEDIA (MAY 1, 2025).
