By Alex Ter Adum
The outcome of last Saturday’s Area Council elections in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) may not have met the ideal threshold of electoral standards, nor did it satisfy the expectations of many supporters. However, beyond emotional reactions lies a sobering reality: critical political fundamentals were either left to chance or taken for granted.
1. Candidate Selection and Identity Balance
Take, for instance, the issue of candidate selection and demographic balancing.
The ADC candidate for AMAC Chairmanship, Dr. Moses Paul — widely regarded as one of the most competent individuals on the ballot — emerged from the legacy ADC structure rather than from the newer coalition leadership reportedly aligned with figures such as David Mark. This distinction is not cosmetic; it lies at the heart of the controversy over candidate emergence and legitimacy within the party.
In a politically sensitive environment like the FCT, issues of indigeneship, ethnicity, religion, and regional balance are not peripheral — they are central. Political tickets in Nigeria are routinely assessed for demographic equilibrium.
Pairing a Christian from Benue as Chairman with a Christian from the South-East as Deputy in a cosmopolitan and religiously diverse council like AMAC created perceptual vulnerabilities. Whether justified or not, perceptions matter in politics. The absence of clear indigeneship sensitivity and interfaith balancing potentially alienated segments of the indigenous and Muslim communities, many of whom reportedly gravitated toward the ticket of the All Progressives Congress (APC), which appeared to reflect local roots and religious balancing.
Turnout patterns reinforce this point. Participation was stronger in rural AMAC — where demographic sensitivities tend to weigh more heavily — and weaker in urban elite wards where online support appeared more vocal. In effect, the ticket resonated more with elite sentiment than with the rural voting base that ultimately determines outcomes.
2. Organizational Weakness and Overreliance on Digital Momentum
A second and equally critical factor was structural weakness.
The campaign leaned heavily on “Obidient” enthusiasm, prioritizing online visibility, messaging, and social media momentum. While digital engagement shapes perception, Nigerian elections are won — and defended — through structure:
Polling unit agents
Ward coordinators
Collation centre representatives
Grassroots mobilizers
The noticeable absence of agents in several polling units and collation centres revealed a serious disconnect between online activism and electoral infrastructure. Social media may energize, but only organization protects mandates.
3. Fragile and Fragmented Party Structures
Perhaps the most consequential issue was the weakness and fragmentation of party structures.
The coalition inherited fragile machinery from the legacy ADC. In many wards, individuals claiming to be “legacy executives” have resisted integration with coalition partners. Some were never duly elected but emerged opportunistically once the party gained prominence through coalition adoption.
INEC records reportedly reflect discrepancies between recognized executives and those operating on the ground in some jurisdictions. Many actors within the FCT structure lacked electoral management experience. Consequently:
Logistics intended for polling agents failed to reach them.
Submitted agent names did not appear on election day.
Coordination collapsed at critical moments.
What unfolded in the FCT should not be dismissed as a local anomaly. It reveals a broader structural challenge within the ADC nationwide. Without properly conducted congresses to produce legitimate grassroots leadership, electoral competitiveness will remain uphill.
The Way Forward
The FCT experience should not be misinterpreted as a referendum on the party’s national appeal. Rather, it exposes structural and strategic deficiencies that demand urgent correction.
To compete effectively ahead of 2027, the ADC must:
Accelerate membership revalidation and registration.
Conduct congresses at all levels without delay.
Establish legitimate, unified grassroots structures.
Adopt a balanced and demographically strategic candidate selection framework.
Begin early construction of physical voter mobilization and mandate protection systems.
Confront internal fragmentation decisively.
The final point is non-negotiable. Coordination drives mobilization. Mobilization determines victory.
Until structure replaces sentiment and discipline replaces improvisation, electoral success will remain elusive.
@ Adum PhD , a Distinguished Lawyer wrote from Abuja.
